Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ricardo Belmont has a low chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Ricardo Belmont will not win the 2026 presidential election, with a 99.05% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 5.45% for a YES outcome, suggesting a consensus against his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 5.45%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is 775 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).