Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Rick Caruso has a very low chance of winning the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Rick Caruso winning the California Governor Election in 2026, with a strong consensus leaning towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI probability further supports this view, suggesting a 3.15% chance of victory, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome for Caruso.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest limited support for his candidacy.
• 3 The market appears to be efficiently priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in voter sentiment.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.