Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Robert Golob has a 38.5% chance of becoming Slovenia's next Prime Minister.

The market indicates a 38.5% probability for Robert Golob to be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia, suggesting skepticism about his candidacy. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a balanced view of his chances against the prevailing opposition.

• 1 Current sentiment leans against Golob's candidacy.
• 2 Market probability suggests a competitive political landscape.
• 3 No significant edge indicates fair market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 206 hours.
• 5 Confidence level of 60/100 shows moderate uncertainty.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.