Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Roberto Chiabra has a low chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood against Roberto Chiabra winning the 2026 presidential election, with a 99.55% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on his low chances despite a slight variance in probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.55%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.95%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 774 hours, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).