Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Rodina is unlikely to gain the most seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rodina gaining the most seats, with a 99.6% probability for NO. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 95.1%, indicating a low likelihood of Rodina's success in the election.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a low chance for Rodina at 4.9%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 4905 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Current sentiment suggests stability in opposition to Rodina's seat gain.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.