Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Rodrigo Rivera has a low chance of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rodrigo Rivera winning the upcoming election, with a market probability of only 0.30% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a 4.8% chance of victory, suggesting that current sentiment is heavily in favor of a NO outcome.

• 1 Market probability indicates a strong NO sentiment at 99.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 95.2% for NO.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 107 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).