Will Rory Hoskins be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Rory Hoskins is unlikely to be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Rory Hoskins being the Democratic nominee, with a 99.85% probability of 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his nomination, although it assigns a slightly higher probability to 'YES.'

• 1 Market consensus strongly favors 'NO' at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.65%.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, at just 24 hours.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.