Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Roy Barreras is unlikely to win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Roy Barreras winning, with a 99.7% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low probability of 4.8% for a YES outcome, suggesting that current expectations are firmly against his candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low confidence in Barreras's chances.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1948 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).