Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Roy Barreras has a low chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 2.5% probability of Roy Barreras winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.5%. With a high NO probability of 97.5%, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting a strong consensus against Barreras's candidacy. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Barreras.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI model's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in political dynamics.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).