Will Russia join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly favors Russia not joining the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Russia will not join the Board of Peace, with a NO probability of 94.95%. The AI model also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a moderate confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily leans towards NO.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities is relatively small.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Market dynamics suggest stability in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board