Will Ryan Walters replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

Ryan Walters is unlikely to replace Markwayne Mullin as Senator from Oklahoma.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Ryan Walters replacing Markwayne Mullin, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of 4.5% for a YES outcome, indicating that while the market is fairly priced, there is minimal sentiment supporting Walters' candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is low, indicating limited support for Walters.
• 3 Market pricing suggests confidence in Mullin's position.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, with no major fluctuations noted.

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h