Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Market strongly favors NO for Sadegh Larijani as Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.2% for NO, indicating strong skepticism about Sadegh Larijani's chances. The Pulse AI probability further reinforces this with a 96.2% NO, suggesting consensus against his ascension. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a low probability of YES at 3.8%.
• 3 Market confidence is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7138 hours, allowing for potential developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme