Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Low probability for Sadegh Mahsouli as next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Sadegh Mahsouli becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 99.85% NO probability. Despite a slightly higher AI probability of 3.15% for YES, the overall sentiment indicates low confidence in his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Mahsouli's candidacy.
• 2 The low YES probability suggests minimal public or political backing.
• 3 AI predictions indicate a slightly higher likelihood than the market, but still low overall.
• 4 The market's edge of 3 suggests it is fairly priced based on available information.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments in Iranian politics.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme