Will Saeed Jalili be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Market overwhelmingly predicts Saeed Jalili will not be the next Supreme Leader of Iran.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Saeed Jalili becoming the next Supreme Leader, with a 0% probability for 'YES' and a 100% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI corroborates this view, assigning a 3% probability to 'YES', suggesting that current sentiment is firmly against his ascension to this role.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for Jalili's leadership.
• 2 The probability assigned by Pulse AI aligns closely with market data.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates that the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 suggests strong conviction in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 7120 hours allows for potential political developments.

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme