Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Low probability for Séamas McGrattan to win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market indicates a 1.5% probability of Séamas McGrattan winning the by-election, with a strong consensus against this outcome. The Pulse AI model also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment is heavily leaning towards a 'NO' vote. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about McGrattan's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 The edge indicates that the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in political dynamics.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).