Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

San Marino has a very low chance of winning the Eurovision 2026 televote.

The market indicates a 0.25% probability for San Marino to win the televote, suggesting strong skepticism among participants. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 4.75%, indicating some potential for an unexpected outcome, but overall confidence remains low with a score of 55/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 San Marino's historical performance in Eurovision has been weak.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI assessment.
• 4 There is a significant gap between market and AI probabilities, indicating potential for volatility.
• 5 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for possible changes in public opinion.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.