Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?

Market indicates a low probability of Sarah Knafo advancing in the election.

The prediction market shows a 35.50% chance of Sarah Knafo advancing to the second round, with a consensus leaning towards a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a lack of confidence in her candidacy. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a moderate confidence level.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of Knafo advancing is relatively low compared to historical trends.
• 3 Market and AI probabilities are closely aligned, indicating stability.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market dynamics.

Municipal elections are scheduled to be held in Paris on March 15, 2026, with a potential second round on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed candidate’s list advances from the first round to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market refers solely to the citywide Council of Paris list vote and not to votes cast for arrondissement lists.

A candidate’s list will be considered to have advanced only if a list in the second round is headed by the listed candidate. If a first-round list withdraws and merges into another list and the listed candidate is not the lead candidate of the resulting second-round list, it will not be considered to have advanced for the purposes of this market.

If no second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is