Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?

Low probability for Lecornu to be the next leader out before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Sébastien Lecornu will not be the next leader to exit before 2027, with a 95.8% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, although with slightly higher uncertainty, suggesting that while the market is fairly priced, there is still a modest chance of change.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Lecornu remaining in position.
• 2 The probability gap suggests confidence in Lecornu's stability.
• 3 Historical trends show low turnover for leaders in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.