Will Óscar Sogliano win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Óscar Sogliano in the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.6% likelihood that Óscar Sogliano will not win the election, with a low 0.4% chance of a YES outcome. The Pulse AI further supports this view, estimating a 4.9% chance of a YES outcome, suggesting a strong consensus against Sogliano's candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a low YES probability of 4.9%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is 107 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).