Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Low probability of Scott Turner leaving the Trump Cabinet before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Scott Turner will remain in the Trump Cabinet until 2027, with a 98.9% chance of 'NO' compared to a 1.1% chance of 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for his departure, suggesting consensus on his stability in the role.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Scott Turner staying in his position.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI's assessment, indicating consensus.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 4 With a confidence level of 65/100, there is moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of th