Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

The SNP is heavily favored to win the most seats in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong expectation for the Scottish National Party (SNP) to secure the most seats in the upcoming 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with a market probability of 91.80%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 86.3%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 5.5 points.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors the SNP winning most seats.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued based on market data.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1249 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Market dynamics may shift with new political developments or events.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).