Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Sergio Fajardo is unlikely to win the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Sergio Fajardo winning, with a 99.1% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 5.4% for a 'YES', indicating skepticism about his chances as the election approaches.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 99.1%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of Fajardo winning at 5.4%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2504 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).