Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Shabana Mahmood has a low probability of becoming Prime Minister in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Shabana Mahmood becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 97.55% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.95%, suggesting limited but existing optimism.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 97.55%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 6.95%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7038 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.