The Social Democratic Party is unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Danish election.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the Social Democratic Party will not secure the most seats in the upcoming election, with a market probability of 0.10% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.6% for a YES, suggesting consensus on their limited chances. The edge of 4.5 indicates that the market pricing is considered fair.
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Danish Folketing (unicameral national legislature) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Danish Folketing in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Danish government sources such as the Ministry of Interior and Health (https://www.valg.im.dk/) and Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en).