Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Social Democrats are heavily favored to win the most seats in the 2026 Danish election.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of the Social Democrats winning the most seats in the upcoming Danish general election, with a market probability of 97.30%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 93.3%, suggesting a consensus on their dominance. However, the edge of -4 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a balanced assessment of the situation.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the Social Democrats.
• 2 Historical trends suggest stability for the Social Democrats in recent elections.
• 3 The market probability aligns closely with AI predictions, indicating consensus.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 Liquidity appears sufficient for potential shifts in sentiment.

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Danish Folketing (unicameral national legislature) as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Danish Folketing in this election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Danish government sources such as the Ministry of Interior and Health (https://www.valg.im.dk/) and Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en).