Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

The market strongly favors NO for the Sovereignty Party winning the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of the Sovereignty Party winning the most seats, with a 99.55% chance of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against the party's prospects in the upcoming election.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 99.55%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a 4.95% chance for YES, indicating low confidence.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1249 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).