Spain is unlikely to join the Board of Peace based on current market probabilities.
The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Spain joining the Board of Peace, with a 98.6% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.4%, suggesting some uncertainty in the market. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.
Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board