Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

The market strongly favors NO for SPD winning the most seats in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a very low chance for SPD to win the most seats in the upcoming elections, with a consensus leaning heavily towards NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a slight increase in potential support for SPD but still favoring NO significantly. The confidence level indicates moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 3.05%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates low confidence in SPD's electoral success.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).