Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Low market probability indicates Stephen Miran is unlikely to be confirmed as Fed Chair.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Stephen Miran's confirmation as Fed Chair, with a 98.85% probability of 'NO.' The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 4.15% for 'YES,' but overall confidence remains low, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors a negative outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than the AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes in sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting a well-informed market.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.