Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Steve Hershey has a low chance of winning the 2026 Maryland Republican primary.

The prediction market indicates a 4% probability of Steve Hershey winning the Republican primary, while the Pulse AI estimates it at 8.5%. This suggests a strong consensus against his candidacy, with a relatively low confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 96%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 8.5%, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 2126 hours, allowing for potential changes in the political climate.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.