Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Steve Hilton has a low chance of winning the 2026 California Governor Election.

The prediction market indicates a 6.95% probability of Steve Hilton winning the California Governor Election, significantly lower than the 93.05% chance of him not winning. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 9.95%, but overall confidence is moderate at 75/100, indicating a fairly priced market with limited volatility expected in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors NO at 93.05%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher YES probability at 9.95%.
• 3 Market confidence level is moderate at 75/100.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 5733 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.