Will Susana Martinez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Susana Martinez is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Republican primary in New Mexico.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against Susana Martinez winning the Republican primary, with a 99.75% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.75% for a YES outcome, suggesting limited confidence in her candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment against Martinez's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for her win than the market.
• 3 Current confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 1730 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears to be efficiently priced based on available information.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.