Will Sushila Karki be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Low probability for Sushila Karki as next Prime Minister of Nepal.

The market shows a strong consensus against Sushila Karki becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 99.8% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment is firmly against her candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Karki's candidacy.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 The edge indicates that the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.