Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Sweden has a low probability of winning the Eurovision 2026 televote.

The prediction market indicates a 4.85% chance of Sweden winning the televote, significantly lower than the Pulse AI's estimate of 9.35%. This suggests that while the market is fairly priced, there is a general consensus against Sweden's chances in this event.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome at 95.15%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests slightly higher chances for a YES at 9.35%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1285 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Historical trends show that early predictions can change significantly closer to the event.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.