Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

The market strongly favors that the 2026 Midterm Elections will occur as scheduled.

With a market probability of 90% for a YES outcome, there is strong confidence in the elections proceeding as planned. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 86%, indicating a consensus among participants. The edge of -4 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a stable outlook.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors the elections happening on schedule.
• 2 Market probability indicates strong confidence in the YES outcome.
• 3 Pulse AI probability closely matches market expectations.
• 4 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains stable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.