Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

The KDNP is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the upcoming election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against the KDNP winning the most seats, with a 99.95% NO probability. The AI model also supports this view, suggesting a low likelihood of a KDNP victory at 3.05%. Given the confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment against KDNP winning.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for KDNP than the market.
• 3 Current confidence level indicates strong market belief in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 354 hours.
• 5 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solel