Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

The market strongly favors a NO vote for the Climate fund initiative in Switzerland.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.8% likelihood of a NO vote, suggesting overwhelming skepticism about the initiative's approval. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, with a 96.8% chance of rejection, reflecting a consensus on the initiative's unlikelihood of passing.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus with a 99.8% NO probability.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 3.2%.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry for the vote is currently unknown, adding to market volatility.

Four referendums will be held on 8 March 2026 (You can read more about that here: www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/popular-vote-on-8-march-2026/):

- Issue 1: Cash initiative and counter-proposal
- Issue 2: Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) initiative
- Issue 3: Climate fund initiative
- Issue 4: Individual taxation

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held on 8 March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results