Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

The market indicates a low probability of the Court forcing Trump to refund tariffs.

With a 30% probability for a YES outcome and 70% for NO, the market suggests skepticism about the Court's intervention. The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty, while the edge of 0 implies the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
• 2 Legal precedents may influence future decisions on tariffs.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate, reflecting uncertainty.
• 4 No significant edge suggests fair market pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments in the case.

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market tim