The Democratic Party of Korea is favored to win the 2026 local elections.
The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of the Democratic Party of Korea winning the upcoming local elections, with a market probability of 96.05% in favor. However, the AI probability suggests a slightly lower confidence at 90.55%, indicating some potential undervaluation of the NO side. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in this prediction.
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose En