Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?

Market suggests a 57.3% chance the DHS shutdown will end after April 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a slight majority believe the DHS shutdown will conclude after April 30, 2026, with a probability of 57.3%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 54.3%, suggesting a close contest between the two outcomes. The market is currently viewed as fairly priced, with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a resolution after April 30, 2026.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a competitive landscape with no clear consensus.
• 3 Historical trends in government shutdowns may influence future outcomes.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting balanced participation.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 749 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.