Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?

The market strongly favors a DHS shutdown lasting beyond April 1, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 98.35% likelihood that the DHS shutdown will not end before April 1, 2026. In contrast, the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 6.15% for a resolution before this date, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions. The edge of 4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on the available data.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against an early end to the DHS shutdown.
• 2 AI model indicates a higher probability than the market, suggesting some divergence in expectations.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 757 hours, which may influence market dynamics.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, supporting the current market pricing.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.