Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the DHS shutdown ending between April 17-20, 2026.

With a market probability of 7.15% for a shutdown ending during this period, the consensus leans heavily towards a continuation. The Pulse AI probability slightly increases the likelihood but still reflects a strong expectation that the shutdown will persist. The confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a continuation of the shutdown.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions indicates some divergence in expectations.
• 3 Historical trends show shutdowns often extend beyond initial deadlines.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting consistent interest.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 761 hours remaining until the expiry date.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.