Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?

The market suggests a low probability of the DHS shutdown ending between April 21-24, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong expectation that the DHS shutdown will not end during the specified dates, with a NO probability of 87.9%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 16.6%. This alignment suggests a consensus on the likelihood of the shutdown continuing beyond this period.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong belief in continued shutdown.
• 3 Historical trends show shutdowns often extend beyond initial deadlines.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 749 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.