Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?

The market strongly favors a DHS shutdown lasting beyond April 8, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that the DHS shutdown will not end between April 5-8, 2026, with a NO probability of 99.65%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, assigning a 95.15% probability to the NO outcome, suggesting a consensus on the expected duration of the shutdown.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a prolonged shutdown.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest minimal chance of resolution in early April.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.