Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?

The market strongly favors a DHS shutdown lasting beyond April 12, 2026.

With a market probability of 98.15% for a NO outcome, there is a significant consensus that the DHS shutdown will not end between April 9-12, 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of resolution during this timeframe. The edge of 4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a prolonged shutdown.
• 2 Key factors include political dynamics and funding negotiations.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest shutdowns often extend beyond initial deadlines.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with clear pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 748 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.