Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?

The market strongly predicts the DHS shutdown will not end between February 16-19, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that the DHS shutdown will not conclude during the specified dates. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a low probability of 3% for a resolution. The market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting a strong consensus among participants.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus with 100% on NO.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 97% NO.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 75/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, with 495 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.