Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?

The market strongly favors a DHS shutdown that will not end between February 20-23, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a complete consensus against the DHS shutdown ending during the specified dates. With a market probability of 0% for a YES outcome and a Pulse AI probability of only 3% for the same, the sentiment is firmly against any resolution in that timeframe. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests a moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO sentiment with 100% probability against a shutdown ending.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of change.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced with no significant mispricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 487 hours, adding urgency to any developments.
• 5 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the current market assessment.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.