Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for the DHS shutdown ending in early March 2026.

With a market probability of 0% for a YES outcome, participants overwhelmingly believe the DHS shutdown will not end between February 28 and March 3, 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, assigning a 3% probability to a YES outcome, indicating a strong consensus against the shutdown ending during this timeframe.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus with 100% probability for NO.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 97% for NO.
• 3 Current confidence level is relatively high at 75/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at 487 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.