Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the DHS shutdown ending between March 12-15, 2026.

Current market probabilities show a strong belief that the DHS shutdown will not end during the specified dates, with a NO probability of 96.4%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a higher likelihood of a NO outcome at 91.9%. This indicates a consensus among participants that significant obstacles remain for a resolution within this timeframe.

• 1 Market shows strong skepticism about a resolution in mid-March 2026.
• 2 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome with low volatility.
• 3 Historical trends suggest shutdowns often extend beyond initial deadlines.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 487 hours until the expiry date.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.