Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?

The market predicts a low chance of the DHS shutdown ending between March 16-19, 2026.

The current market probability indicates a strong expectation that the DHS shutdown will not conclude during the specified dates. With a probability of 93.4% for 'NO', the market sentiment leans heavily against a resolution, although the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of 11.1% for 'YES'. This discrepancy may reflect differing analyses or expectations about potential political developments leading up to that time.

• 1 Market shows strong skepticism about a resolution during the specified dates.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for a resolution than the market.
• 3 Current market confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 475 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 4.5 edge.

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026.

The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.